UCLA @ Cincinnati 7:00 EST
Spread: Cincinnati -2.5
Total: 59.5
The current line implies that UCLA is further along in their rebuild than I believe that they are. My opinion is that if this game were played at the end of last season, then Cincinnati would probably be listed around a full touchdown higher. While I’m willing to believe that UCLA will be an improved team, I think Cincinnati, too, is moving in the right direction. These two met in the opener last season that was played in Los Angeles. Cincinnati won 26-17, but statistically, it was an evenly matched contest.
The UCLA offense should be better this season, due to having their QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson in the program for a full year and the offensive line has come a long way in a year. The Bruins will rely on their ground game. They were decidedly average last season as a rush offense. The potential issue is that Cincinnati was a top 10 rush defense last season. They need to replace a good bit, so it’s possible that they take a significant step back, but I don’t think they are going to be an easy group to run on. I don’t believe that they are going to be pushed around, as many Group of Five defensive lines are when facing a Power Five offensive line. UCLA was slightly better at passing last season than they were running the ball and I think it’s reasonable to assume that Cinci improves their pass defense and presents a real challenge for DTR and his below-average group of pass-catchers. Last year, Cinci seemed to struggle more with mobile quarterbacks than pocket passers, so it should be a fun battle to watch.
The Cincinnati offense rates to be improved this year. There is usually concern when an offensive line needs to be re-tooled, and they will, but they have some inspiring skill guys in place with a quarterback that appears ready to text the next step. Two seasons ago, UCLA as the worst rush defense in the country. They improved a bunch last year but only graduated to a really bad group as opposed to a terrible one. Their pass defense wasn’t a whole lot better, and that was with two players that got looks in the NFL this summer. Their pass rush appears to be a concern entering the year, and while they have some talent at the cornerback spots, they are going to be young at safety. Like Cinci’s defense against UCLA’s offense, it’s easier for me to trust the Bear Cats offense more than the Bruins’ defense, even though I believe that UCLA’s rush defense should be more productive this season. Desmond Ridder was impressive last season as a redshirt freshman, and I think his ability to win with his legs will cause some problems for UCLA, as quarterbacks with comparable skillsets did last season.
Overall, I think this game is going to be a bit of a grinder. I took advantage of a rogue total that got up a half-point from seventy earlier this summer, but that was quickly corrected, and it’s now ten points lower. I still like the under at 59.5 or better, but I think there could be slightly more value on the home team at -2.5 or better.
Prediction: Cincinnati 31 UCLA 24
Pick(s): Cincinnati -2.5
Georgia Tech @ Clemson 8:00 EST
Spread: Clemson -36
Total: 60
This used to be the easiest handicap of the year. The recent Clemson defense defended the triple-option better than any non-service-academy team that I’ve ever seen. Their plethora of elite defensive linemen and familiarity with playing Tech once a year resulted in a bloodbath. The good news for the Jackets is that they are going to run a more progressive offense this fall. The bad news is that they will be cutting their teeth against a Clemson defense that may be re-tooled, but still full of future pro players. I like the hire that GT made and I’m optimistic about their offense as the year progresses. I think Lucas Johnson will be a gamer at quarterback, there is talent on the offensive line (but learning new scheme), they will be moving at an accelerated pace, and they have solid groups of backs and pass-catchers. This game comes down to how much does Dabo wanna score? What is the plan for the second half of the game? Clemson has Texas A&M next week, and they got a late scare from the Ags last season. As such, too much variance in the game for me to get involved as my numbers were close to the spread and total.
Prediction: Clemson 48 Georgia Tech 14
Pick(s): PASS
FIU @ Tulane 8:00 EST
Spread: Tulane -2
Total: 57.5
I have little feel for, and no opinion on this game.
Prediction: Tulane 30 FIU 27
Pick(s): PASS
Texas State @ Texas A&M 8:30 EST
Spread: Texas A&M -33.5
Total: 56
Texas State’s new hire likely means that we see their offense improve significantly. If you are unfamiliar with their new head coach Jake Spavital, his roots are in the Dana Holgorsen/Kliff Kingsbury Air-Raid offense. They recently announced that their quarterback would be Tyler Vitt. I love the choice, as opposed to going with a grad transfer that had ties to the new offensive coordinator. Texas State was really bad on offense last season, but I believe they have a plan now and some intriguing pieces to make some noise this season. This is a substantial first ask of them, but I’m willing to bet that they can throw enough uppercuts that they draw blood. They went fast on offense last year, and it’s reasonable to expect they either maintain or accelerate their tempo this season. Last season, A&M’s rush defense was elite, and their pass defense was indigent. Things probably level out for them this season, and they regress against the run and improve against the pass. They clearly outclass the Bobcats here, so I needn’t belabor the issue. They may blank them. However, looking back at the Aggies games against the little fish last season, the scores were: 59-7, 48-10, and 41-20. Dating back to Fisher’s previous two years at FSU, we saw: 52-8, 55-35, 77-6, 42-10, and 42-13 against FCS and G5 foes. I use all of that illustrate how Jimbo handled mismatches such as this. Texas State only went up in class once last season, a season-opening trip to Rutgers where they lost 35-7. Texas State’s defense wasn’t nearly as bad as their offense last season. I think their defense will be pretty good again this season. It won’t matter in this game though; they are too severely outclassed. The Ags are going to be a good offense this year and should dominate all levels of Texas State’s defense. Much like the Clemson game, I’m unsure exactly how motivated Texas A&M will be to play a full sixty, with Clemson looming? I’m using those past games of Fisher’s to help inform me for this matchup. If Texas State can’t score twice, then we could be in trouble here, but I believe that they can and will and that Mond and Corbin can do most of the heavy lifting here. If things go badly, it will probably be due to Jimbo’s snail pace and just running out the fourth quarter.
Prediction: Texas A&M 48 Texas State 13
Pick(s): Over 56
Kent State @ Arizona State 10:00 EST
Spread: Arizona State -25
Total: 60
Kent State looks to have one of the most improved offenses in the country this season. Last year was a “Year Zero” scenario in which they had to convert from Fred Flinstone’s offense to one that utilizes spacing, blistering pace, and the forward pass. They have a former Auburn quarterback running their offense that is a significant threat to win with his legs. It’s reasonable to expect that Kent State throws the ball forty-plus times this game. One could look at Arizona State’s defense last season and assume that they were pretty good. I am not of that opinion. I think they hid for most of the year behind playing a bunch of teams with turd-offenses. They got exposed to close the season once they played a few teams that either utilized a fast tempo and/or had legitimate quality. They gave up 6.9, 6.0, 6.3, and 6.8 yards-per-play to close the season. Those were all offenses that had quarterbacks who could run. For perspective, they allowed 5.7 YPP for the year, which was dead average nationally. For even more perspective, Kent State gave up 6.6 YPP last season, which ranked 118th out of 130th nationally.
I guess that’s a good segue into talking about the Sun Devils’ offense against the Flash’s defense. It’s probably going to go very poorly for KSU. Sure, ASU is starting a true freshman at quarterback, but their offensive line should dominate, they have Eno Benjamin, and Daniels is a supremely gifted player that enters college with an extraordinary level of experience. Playing high-level high school ball, Daniels finished his career with 14,007 passing yards and 170 touchdowns to go with 562-3645-41 rushing. I wondered how they would handle the quarterbacks this game, and House of Sparky gave us our answer, “We are going to hit the ground running,” Likens said. “We are going to call plays according to what he can do…That doesn’t concern me, and I don’t think Jayden is like that. I don’t worry about him panicking and all that. If we feel like a pass is the first thing to do on the first play of the game, that’s what we are going to do.” During Sunday’s availability with the coordinators, Likens also announced that he had no intention whatsoever of working in Yellen over the course of the game unless the situation absolutely asked for it.” Kent State came up three times last year, and they lost 31-24, 63-10, and 38-17. I suffered through the entire 38-17 loss to Ole Miss, and I had an over ticket in that game. Let me tell you; the Rebs should have scored well into the 50s. I believe that Kent State is capable of scoring 20+ points in this game, and it’s unreasonable to expect that Arizona State would be held under 39 points, which is what KSU allowed in 2018. I’m excited about the potential of both quarterbacks in this game. Perhaps I will talk more about Woody Barrett in a forthcoming DFS article. Both QBs are playing behind quality offensive lines, and this game should be performed at a breakneck pace. I like Kent State to keep it relatively close, but above all, I think we are going to see a bunch of points. There are a few ways that could happen, and it’s my preferred approach to take in this game.
Prediction: Arizona State 45 Kent State 24
Pick(s): Over 60 (Kent State at +27 or better)
Utah @ BYU (+5.5/47)
Spread: Utah -5.5
Total: 47
Holy War! I love watching this game every season. We can usually rely on a few constants: it’s gonna be low scoring, it’s gonna be decided by one score, and these teams really dislike one another. I think all of those things will be true in this game. The last six games have been deiced by one score or less. They’ve also all resulted in Ute wins. The average Ute win has been by the score of 26-20. That seems probable again. I think both teams should have improved offenses this season, but it’s their defenses that I feel are their best units. Utah, in particular, has a potentially elite group. I’ve followed this program closely over the years, and I’ve never heard Kyle Whittingham talk about his defense the way that he has been this off-season. This is a macro play for me. I take the under every time these guys play. This year was no different.
The only variation was that I acted early and so I got a great number, 49. Last season, this matchup was one of the most squirrelly ones of their recent history. We had muffed punts, shanked punts, defensive touchdowns, blocked field goals, and more. Utah was held to 86 yards at halftime and trailed 20-0. They were in a big hole but scored 28 unanswered points in the final 16 minutes of the game. I expect both teams to have significantly improved quarterback play this year, but I think the defenses should have the upper hand on both sides, particularly with this being played in Week 1. Utah’s coaching edge is about as drastic as we will see in any game this season, but the passion of the players and the home crowd should keep the Cougs in another one-score, slugfest loss.
Prediction: Utah 24 BYU 19
Pick(s): (Under at 49 or better, Utah at -3 or better)
